Day: August 23, 2022

The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party this fall will determine China’s political direction for the next five years.

A key agenda item hinges on the answer to one question posed to members of the Politburo Standing Committee (PSC), the most important policy-making group in China:

What is your age?

Implicit is that Xi Jinping, the 69-year-old general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and president of China, need not answer.

But for other members of the PSC, age is more than just a number. Sixty-eight is the accepted retirement age for the committee members, who are on both sides of that milestone:

Li Keqiang: Premier of the State Council. Born in July 1955, 67 years old.

Li Zhanshu: Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress. Born in August 1950, 72 years old.

Wang Yang: Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. Born in March 1955, 67 years old.

Wang Huning: First Secretary of the Central Secretariat. Born in October 1955, turning 67 years old.

Zhao Leji: Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. Born in March 1957, 65 years old.

Han Zheng: Executive Vice Premier. Born in April 1954, 68 years old.

Commonly referred to as qishang baxia or “seven up, eight down,” the convention holds that if a PSC member is 68 or older at the time of a party congress, retirement looms. If a PSC member is 67 or younger, he — and all members are males — retains his PSC seat to serve another five-year term.

According to this rule, three of the current members: Xi (69), Li Zhanshu (72) and Han Zheng (68), should step down at this fall’s 20th Party Congress.

The likelihood of Xi stepping down is virtually nil. During the congress, an event held every five years, he is expected to be appointed to an unprecedented third term as leader of the Chinese Communist Party.

No written rule

The mandatory retirement age is not in any CCP official regulation or document.

Christopher Johnson, a senior fellow on Chinese politics at Asia Society Policy Institute, pointed out that this is by design, as even the CCP’s constitution has very few rules.

“Unlike political parties in Western parliamentary or constitutional systems, the CCP does not consider itself subject to frameworks such as the constitution or even the law,” he wrote in an Asia Society report published in August.

Johnson said an informal age limit was first introduced at the 15th Party Congress in 1997, which set 70 as the cutoff. In 2002, at the 16th Party Congress, the age limit was lowered to 68. The same limit was observed in the 17th and 18th Party Congress, making “seven up, eight down” the unspoken norm.

Li Ling, a lecturer of Chinese politics at the University of Vienna, said at an online panel hosted by the Asia Society on August 10 that she expects Xi to be an exception to the age limit, which she anticipates he will enforce for others.

“The age limit is the only exit mechanism to end a Politburo Standing Committee member’s tenure. It is very objective and easy to enforce fairly,” she said.

Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund, told Axios that Xi’s goal this fall is to “put his own people on the Politburo Standing Committee and the Politburo.”

No plans for Xi to depart

The party resolution eliminating term limits puts Xi in the unlimited-terms category of former CCP Chairman Mao Zedong. He served as party leader from 1935 until his death on September 9, 1976.

In 2017, Xi broke precedent by not promoting a successor-in-training at the 19th Party Congress. The following year, he maneuvered the abolition of a two-term limit for party presidents.

“Xi Jinping is taking China back to a personalistic dictatorship after decades of institutionalized collective leadership,” said Susan Shirk, an expert on Chinese politics and professor at the University of California, San Diego. “He has clearly signaled his intention to remain in office after his normal two terms end in 2022,” she added in a 2018 analysis published in the Journal of Democracy.

At home, Xi has won widespread support over his campaign on corruption, his theory of common prosperity and projecting Chinese strength to the world.

But Xi’s zero-COVID policy has led to a high unemployment rate and social discontent. The middle-class is boycotting mortgage payments. And on the world stage, there is tension in U.S.-China relations in many areas, including technology, trade and Taiwan.

Xia Ming, a political science professor at the City University of New York, told VOA Mandarin in a video interview that he doesn’t think Xi has a 100% chance to secure his third term.

“With the current domestic and international situation, there’s heightened probability for a major change in Chinese politics,” he said, “so I think Xi only has a 50-50 chance to secure a third term.”

Victor Shih, an associate professor at the University of California, San Diego and an expert on the politics of China’s elite, told VOA Mandarin via phone, “I think there’s no doubt (that Xi will serve a third term), there’s no real opposition force within the Party to challenge Xi’s power.”

Source: Voice of America

Myanmar’s displaced Rohingya Muslims are marking a solemn anniversary this week.

On August 25, 2017, the Myanmar military began a brutal “clearance operation” in response to government reports that a Rohingya insurgent group called the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army or ARSA, had attacked more than 30 police outposts in Rakhine State.

The disproportionate response from Myanmar security forces, which commenced at daybreak, drove an estimated 700,000 Rohingya Muslims to flee to neighboring Bangladesh over the following weeks, and led to charges of genocide against the Myanmar army leaders.

The death toll rose quickly.

An estimated 6,700 Rohingya were killed in the first month with thousands more in the months to follow, according to Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders), as accounts of gang rapes, torture, and mass killings were relayed by survivors and villagers who escaped the attacks.

Despite the global condemnation of their actions in 2017, the Myanmar army has continued its brutal aggression on civilians since seizing power in a coup last year, followed by attacks on all ethnic groups.

Myanmar officials have denied the military carried out human rights abuses. The government said the campaign was necessary to defend against attacks by Rohingya militants.

In March, the United States declared Myanmar military actions against the Rohingya as genocide.

Experts say ongoing abuses being committed across Myanmar have confirmed the credibility of the accounts of the 2017 attacks.

“It’s drawn the attention of the international community to the grave abuses that the military is committing and also has opened the eyes of some of the other groups within Myanmar to the plight of the Rohingya, groups that had previously not believed what the military was committing against the Rohingya or believed the military’s lies,” explained Dan Sullivan, Refugee International’s Asia and Africa deputy director.

While the move to unite all opposing ethnic forces has become increasingly popular, some rights groups are not sure that it will become reality.

“In order to overcome the ruthless military junta, all parties need to be united against them,” says Kyaw Win, the executive director of the Burma Human Rights Network (BHRN). “It is not enough only opposing the junta … it is crucial to collaborate with each other.”

There are 135 ethnic groups in Myanmar, excluding the Rohingya, who were stripped of their citizenship in a 1982 law created by the army, which perpetuated decades of abuse and unfair treatment.

Meanwhile, life in the sprawling Bangladesh camps remains tough for the stateless refugees, who face adverse conditions and increased restrictions.

“Since the completion of the fencing around the whole refugee camp, people are having trouble traveling from one camp to another—even inside the fenced area—because of the security forces who were deployed in the camp and many other reasons,” explained a 25-year-old camp youth, who lives in Kutapalong, the world’s largest refugee camp.

The youth, who asked to remain anonymous, says that while the fencing is good for security, police often extort the Rohingya instead of protecting them, and taxi fees have doubled because drivers now have to pay more money at checkpoints.

U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet discussed repatriation options with Rohingya representatives during a visit to the massive camp earlier this month.

“All of them have said, we want to go back, but we want to go back … when we have an identity as citizens of Myanmar,” she said while visiting the camp. “When our rights are respected, we can have our livelihoods again, we can have our land and we can feel we are a part of a country.”

This desire for equal rights and recognition is echoed by the few Rohingya who have remained in Rakhine, as coup-related travel restrictions in Myanmar have contributed to increased food prices, exacerbating the hardships.

An experienced Rohingya aid worker in Rakhine who did not want to use his name because of security concerns, assessed the junta’s promises of new homes and jobs for Rohingya people who choose to be repatriated.

“It is very difficult, and I would say there are rare opportunities for the Rohingya. Inside Myanmar and Maungdaw, I would say no preparations have been made for them to come back,” the aid worker told VOA by phone, referring to a town in Rakhine.

The aid worker, who witnessed the 2017 exodus first-hand and assisted foreign support teams in Bangladesh, said that some of the refugees are desperate to escape the camps.

“Some people will try to come back but, in the end, it will be a more horrible situation than what they are facing in the refugee camps.”

The worker also said some repatriation shelters, complete with barbed wire and watch towers, have been constructed near Maungdaw in the last few years, but they have already been flooded and damaged.

While waiting for conditions to improve, foreign aid and rights groups are urging the Bangladeshi government to allow schooling for the displaced youngsters in the camps.

“Expanding these education and livelihood opportunities for girls and boys will be the best way to prevent social problems and criminality and to fully prepare refugees for sustainable reintegration in Myanmar society,” Bachelet said at the end of her visit.

Preparing future generations of Rohingya is also a concern for BHRN’s Kyaw Win.

“The Bangladesh government has done a great job opening its border to save many lives,” Kyaw Win said. “However, not allowing education for the children in camp is like killing their souls. Education is extremely important for the Rohingya children to build up their community in future. More humanitarian and human rights organizations must be allowed to operate inside the camp to provide trauma healing courses.”

Despite setbacks created by increased Myanmar junta atrocities, the first step toward justice for the Rohingya people occurred last month in The Hague.

After dismissing objections by Myanmar’s military ruler, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in July allowed a case to proceed alleging that Myanmar performed acts of genocide against the Rohingya.

Despite overwhelming evidence gathered, analysts say that more pressure is needed as the trial could continue for years.

“Fundamentally, the impunity of the junta needs to be addressed through concerted international actions with better coordinated and expanded sanctions including the oil and gas sectors, the pursuing of an arms embargo and then sustaining that humanitarian aid and accountability,” explained Sullivan of Refugee International.

BHRN’s Khaw Win agrees with calls for increased pressure on the junta.

“More countries need to join the ICJ case and more countries should open up universal jurisdiction cases against the perpetrators,” Khaw Win said, adding that mounting evidence collected by international agencies is increasingly difficult to refute.

Texting from his bamboo hut, the unnamed 25-year-old Rohingya youth struck a more optimistic tone on the historic court ruling.

“We feel good because the world is still under the administration of intellectual people that will reveal there’s no place in the world for perpetrators,” the youth wrote. “We also feel that this is the time to deliver justice and hold the perpetrators accountable.”

Source: Voice of America