Key Messages
• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are ongoing in deficit-producing areas, including the southern lowlands, foothills, and the Senqu river valley. The peak of the lean season continues, and households face reduced purchasing power amidst increased dependence on purchases and below-average income levels. However, improvements are expected between April and May when households begin to access the main harvest from the 2022/23 cropping season. Following the harvest, households are therefore expected to transition into Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through September.
• Cumulative rainfall for the 2022/23 cropping season has been above average across the country. However, between November and December persistent heavy rainfall has caused nutrient loss through leaching for some crops and hampered farm management activities like weeding. Moreover, despite above-average rainfall, the area planted for the current cropping season is nearly 30 percent below normal due to high seed and fertilizer costs. As a result, overall crop production for the 2022/23 season is expected to be below average.
• Across the country, maize and sorghum crops are in the early to the late reproductive stage (tasseling and grain filling), depending on their planting dates. By the end of March, consumption of the green harvest is expected to improve household food access leading to improvements in food security outcomes.
Source: Famine Early Warning System Network