Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes likely to emerge in late 2022 due to low household purchasing power
Despite expected below-average production for the current harvest that began in May, rural households are expected to continue consuming own produced food through August. Overall income is lower than normal due to below average crop sales and reduced remittances from South Africa; at least 60 percent of households receive monthly remittances. As a result,
Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are most likely through September. Crisis (IPC phase 3) outcomes are likely to emerge in late 2022 as households will be market reliant, yet with reduced household purchasing power because of above average food price increases and below average income.
Following flooding in January and February, some households, especially in the lowlands and Senqu River Valley, were not able to plant due to heavy rainfall. The fields lying along the rivers had been washed away by the overflowing rivers, damaging the crops according to the 2022 National Emergency Flood Rapid Assessment Report. The government is to provide subsidies on agricultural inputs for winter production. While official production estimates are currently not available, 2022 crop production is expected to be below average and similar to 2021.
Most grain prices remained generally stable owing to decreased demand as most households are consuming ownproduced foods. However, the price of wheat in April increased sharply mostly due to high and increasing global food prices. Similarly, prices of non-staple grains including cooking oil, have also increased in recent months, adding to inflationary pressures. Maize meal prices in April were 14.5 percent above the five-year average, while bread prices were 17.4 percent above average.
Source: Famine Early Warning System Network